Bloomberg: 雷曼兄弟稱次級抵押貸款風險相當有限

Lehman Calls Subprime Mortgage Risks `Well-Contained (Update2) Bloomberg.com

By Yalman Onaran

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the second-biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds, said risks posed by rising home-loan delinquencies are ``well contained'' and will have little effect on the firm's earnings.

Making loans to borrowers with poor credit histories, packaging them into bonds and trading those securities accounted for 3 percent of revenue in the past six quarters, and the firm is hedged against declines in the market, Chief Financial Officer Chris O'Meara said today after the New York-based firm announced a 5.5 percent increase in first-quarter earnings.

Defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages have risen to a seven- year high, causing more than 20 lenders to close or seek buyers since the start of 2006. Concern that rising defaults would crimp profit at Lehman contributed yesterday to the largest drop in the firm's shares in about five years.

``We all breathe a little easier,'' UBS AG analyst Glenn Schorr said during the conference call with analysts in which O'Meara made his comments.

Lehman shares, which fell as much as 5.5 percent before O'Meara's comments, rebounded to a 0.6 percent decline by the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares dropped 28 cents to $71.72.

O'Meara said about 25 percent of the new mortgage loans the firm makes are subprime. While revenue from the subprime business has declined this year, the drop was offset by other businesses, O'Meara said. A 42 percent surge in stock trading contributed to the firm's $1.15 billion in first-quarter profit.

Bear Stearns

Revenue from fixed-income trading, which includes the mortgage business, rose 3 percent to $2.16 billion.

Bear Stearns Cos., which reports earnings tomorrow, is the top-ranked underwriter in the U.S. mortgage-bond market. Morgan Stanley, the second largest U.S. securities firm, reports first- quarter earnings next week.

O'Meara said he doesn't see problems in the subprime market spreading to the rest of the housing market or hurting the U.S. economy. Defaults in so-called Alt-A mortgages -- which are made to borrowers with higher credit scores than subprime yet still below prime credit -- have also increased ``within expectations,'' he said.

``The subprime business itself is not going to create a big event in the economy,'' O'Meara said. ``The credit quality elsewhere is very strong.''

Guy-Max Delphin, an analyst at Fortis Investments, said he was also relieved about the extent of Lehman's risk in the subprime market.

Less Concern

``There will be similar comments coming from Bear Stearns tomorrow, and then the markets will be less concerned about subprime affecting the brokers,'' said Delphin, whose firm manages $153 billion, including Lehman shares. ``It won't have a big impact on these other firms reporting next.''

Lehman's expansion into the home-loan market led to a 67 percent surge in fixed-income sales and trading revenue from 2003 to 2005. The firm acquired five mortgage lenders in 2003 and 2004, adding 3,300 employees, and bundled $146 billion of mortgages into bonds in 2006, a 10 percent jump from 2005.

Lehman held $2 billion of ``residuals,'' the most profitable mortgage securities, at the end of November. The investment bank has hedged all of the risk in those investments as well as other exposure to subprime loans, using credit-default swaps, O'Meara said.

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路透社: 美國次級抵押房貸市場的真實數字

FACTBOX-Details on U.S. subprime mortgage loan market
Wed Mar 14, 2007 5:56 PM ET 路透社 Reuters

March 14 (Reuters) - Subprime mortgages are available to consumers with damaged credit or little borrowing experience. The loans typically carry a higher interest rate or terms that raise their costs above so-called prime loans.


Subprime default rates have been on the rise and more than two dozen lenders have failed or quit the business in the last year.

For more about the subprime mortgage crisis, see [ID:nN14246848].

Following are details on the U.S. subprime mortgage market:

-- Subprime loans grew to 13.6 percent of the total mortgage market last year from 2.4 percent in 2000, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The Federal Reserve Board says U.S. households owed $9.7 trillion on home mortgages at the end of last year.

-- There are roughly 13 million subprime loans in the market today, the MBA says.

-- In the fourth quarter of 2006, lenders began foreclosure proceedings on 0.54 percent of all mortgages, the highest rate on records dating back 37 years, according to the MBA. Two percent of subprime mortgages entered foreclosure, the highest in three years.

-- 13.33 percent of subprime loan payments were delinquent in the last three months of 2006, according to the MBA. That's the highest level since 14.39 percent in the third quarter of 2002.

-- Another 100 mortgage lenders who dabbled in the subprime sector are likely to drop out this year, the MBA says.

-- 1.5 million homeowners will face foreclosure this year, according to research firm RealtyTrac. That would be a 20 percent to 25 percent increase over last year.

-- MBA estimates that between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages face an interest rate reset that will sharply raise their cost this year.

-- One in five subprime mortgages in 2005 and 2006 will end in foreclosure, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a consumer advocacy group.

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路透社: FAQ: 美國抵押市場的麻煩

FAQ: Trouble in the mortgage market
Wed Mar 14 19:35:01 UTC 2007 路透社 Reuters

What is happening in the mortgage market?

The riskiest segment of the U.S. mortgage market, which serves borrowers with poor credit histories at high interest rates, has seen rising default rates in recent months. The Mortgage Bankers Association said lenders began foreclosure against more than one of every 200 U.S. mortgage borrowers in the fourth quarter, a record.

What types of loans are considered 'subprime'?

There are "no doc" loans. That's when you get a loan without giving the lender any documentation about your income. There are also "low doc" loans, or when you get a loan with just a little paperwork about your employment and income. The number of non-traditional loans extended with low or no documentation jumped from 53.9 percent in 2003 to 65.7 percent in 2005, according to First American Loan Performance, which tallies home mortgage data.

How did this crisis come about?

While subprime mortgages have spread credit more widely and helped more people buy their own homes, critics contend a hot real estate market encouraged lenders to get more aggressive and offer increasingly complicated terms that borrowers did not always fully understand. These risks are being exposed as the housing market cools.

What's happening to the lenders ?

At least 20 lenders in the subprime mortgage sector have gone out of business as a result. This week, trading in shares of New Century, the largest independent subprime lender, was suspended by the New York Stock Exchange prior to delisting, and the company received a grand jury subpoena in a federal criminal probe. Countywide Financial Corp, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, reported that delinquencies on subprime loans it serves rose to 19 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 from 15.2 percent a year earlier.

Why is the meltdown among subprime lenders having an impact the whole U.S. stock market?

There is concern that the crisis could spread to more mainstream lenders and worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Delinquencies often foreshadow future loan failures and those bad credits could damage other mortgage-backed investments held by a wide range of investors. Some economists worry that as house prices fall and lenders tighten credit terms, consumers will curb spending and drag down the U.S. economy.

What are congressional and administration officials in Washington saying?

The chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass . ), said he plans to introduce legislation to restrict overly risky mortgages.

The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee , Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), said regulators are accountable for problems in the subprime mortgage sector and that he plans to call them before the committee for questioning.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said a decline in U.S. housing activity has caused some damage in subprime mortgage markets but was not hurting the overall economy. "We have had a significant housing correction in the U.S.," he said on Tuesday. "You can't have a correction like that without causing some dislocations. It's too early to tell whether it's bottomed, I believe it has."

Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the Democratic chairman of the banking panel's securities subcommittee, said federal regulators should take a closer look at how much the banks they oversee are at risk from investing in subprime loans.

What's the outlook?

Some analysts believe the crisis in the subprime mortgage market could boost the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting its target for benchmark interest rates.

One of the factors driving the poor performance of subprime mortgages has been a series of interest rate increases by the Fed. From 2004 to last summer, benchmark rates rose 4.25 percentage points to 5.25 percent. That has led to a steep rise in payments on adjustable rate mortgages.

"The Fed is aware of the situation, and how raising rates might worsen the situation. " said John Kriz, managing director of real estate finance at Moody's Investors Service, a leading credit ratings agency. "Our view is that it is less likely that rates will rise and more likely they will fall."

But a rate cut may be too little, too late for as many as 1.5 million Americans who could lose their homes in the subprime shakeout, according to the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. The group, which represents hundreds of advocates for low-income housing, wants Congress to step in to aid subprime borrowers.

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全球股災！哀鴻遍野！

227/228全球股災，又遇到228放假一天，在家閒閒拍百合花，結果眼看股市大跌，卻不能買賣，只能乾瞪眼。想說只是中國股市謠言造成一時風吹草動，也就沒有出脫手邊的基金，結果卻是眼睜睜看今年的獲利又吐了出來！從前一天的5.7%的報酬一下子少了3%，雖然有作資產配置，相較起來比MSCI世界指數抗跌，績效也勝過大部份全球型基金，但是這種全球跌幅平均2%以上的暴跌，還是難逃慘綠的情況。
今晚歐美股市又擴大了，巴西股市還一度狂跌一千七百多點，嚇死我了。明天要開始轉換基金到債券去了，不然今年賺的又變成空白了。還不知道要多久時間才會停止整理，要回來又要好幾個月了。

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